Saturday, July 26, 2003

Radio Daze - Brian Lambert reports on a number of shakeups at local radio stations.

MPR and NPR are playing musical chairs with a their air talent - in a move whose main impact would seem to sideline the lovely Lorna Benson, MPR will be handing the local hosting of "All Things Considered" to David Molpus.

However, as usual, the real news is on the commercial band, as KSTP-AM's morning show goes through more contortions:
"Elsewhere, KSTP-AM 1500 announced a makeover of its weekday lineup. Gone from the station's heavily conservative talk format is John Wodele, formerly communications director for Gov. Jesse Ventura.

Wodele was hired only six months ago. His 5-to-8 a.m. spot will be taken by Bob Davis, who moves to mornings from KSTP's 10 p.m.-to-midnight slot.
Unmentioned by Lambert: Wodele was awful. Absolutely unlistenable. Twin Cities radio observers felt the station should have given Wodele his severance pay in advance, without actually airing the show - it would have saved the station a lot of ratings grief.

Davis in the morning? Hmmm. I rarely listen to Davis. But Davis' manic streak might be just what the station needs in the morning; not since the early days of Barbara Carlson's morning trainwreck (the first one, not the endless parade of interchangeable voices that accompanied the interminable "Morning Spin" since the mid-nineties) has the station had a morning show that was memorable, much less worth tuning on the radio for.
Syndicated talker and Fox News TV host Sean Hannity has been picked up to fill Davis' time slot.
In other words, for one hour every evening, local talk radio listeners will be able to choose between the bilious Michael Savage and the tedious Hannity.
Wodele's co-host, Mark O'Connell, moves to the 8-to-11 a.m. slot to become full-time co-host with noted St. Paul attorney Ron Rosenbaum.
This is a move that puzzles me. O'Connell is a decent utility player, but not marquee material; his personality doesn't jump through the radio at you. Rosenbaum is an affable enough guy, but I think he'd work better in a supporting role behind...well, a Bob Davis type (but not Davis - I don't think the personalities would mesh very well, although I've been wrong before.

Let's discuss this in six months. I bet the spring book will see yet another shakeup at AM1500.

UPDATE: The Fraters dance, Riverdance-style, on Wodele's radio grave, in a very apt and capable critique.

posted by Mitch Berg 7/26/2003 03:36:31 PM

Jackboots? Check! - Howard "The Duck" Dean's supporters are playing rough, electronically speaking, spamming journalists who offend the ex-governor:
"'When negative press gets written, we'll ensure that letters to the editor get printed in response. . . . The last couple of months have proven the effectiveness of our efforts at media response,' the DDF says.

Sometimes this is rough stuff. When New York Daily News columnist Zev Chafets slammed Dean's appearance on Tim Russert's 'Meet the Press,' the DDF denounced the piece as 'crap,' declaring:

'So here's what we're gonna do. First, we're gonna write Zev (zchafets@yahoo.com) and let him know what we think of his vitriol.'

Suggested themes: 'Russert used Republican lies for his policy research. . . . Anyone who saw Dean's performance knows it wasn't his best, but it was a hell of a lot better than Chafets's columns.'
Chafetz has the mob figured out:
Says Chafets: 'They were polite, but they took issue with the idea that Dean hadn't done well. They were not unintelligent, but it was pretty clear to me they were writing from talking points.'"
OK, let's try this for size: Howard Dean is pimping whatever soul he has to get the Democrats' loony left sewn up for the convention - which is where campaigns like his flourish. If nominated, he will give the Democrats a setback that'll take them another decade or two to recover from. He's a vote whore, willing to

There. I've offended the Duck. Spam me, baby.

Oh, wait - Scrappleface beat us to the punch. Damn you, Scrappleface!

posted by Mitch Berg 7/26/2003 03:11:18 PM

See No Evil - Mark Steyn, in addition to being a terrific journalist, writes one of the best satirical writers going, as we see in this send-up of BBC war and postwar coverage:
"Andrew Gilligan: I'm leaning on a lamp post at the corner of the street in case a certain little duce swings by, and I don't see any dead dictators, John. But then the Allies have a history of making these premature announcements...

He's just above your head, Andrew. I know you don't like to do wide shots, but, if the camera pulls back, I think you'll find that's definitely a finger tickling the back of your ear...

AG: Well, there you are. He's not hanging from a petrol station, is he? He's hanging from a rope attached to a girder on the forecourt of a petrol station. We've become all too familiar with the Allies playing fast and loose with the facts."
Read the whole thing. After a day of enduring what the Beeb, the Times and the Strib say about the situation, you owe it to yourself.

posted by Mitch Berg 7/26/2003 03:01:06 PM

Steyn on the BBC - Powerline tipped me off to this hilarious Mark Steyn sendup of BBC war coverage.

One of many highlights:"Andrew Gilligan: I'm leaning on a lamp post at the corner of the street in case a certain little duce swings by, and I don't see any dead dictators, John. But then the Allies have a history of making these premature announcements..."

He's just above your head, Andrew. I know you don't like to do wide shots, but, if the camera pulls back, I think you'll find that's definitely a finger tickling the back of your ear...

AG: Well, there you are. He's not hanging from a petrol station, is he? He's hanging from a rope attached to a girder on the forecourt of a petrol station. We've become all too familiar with the Allies playing fast and loose with the facts."
Read the whole thing? You betcha.
posted by Mitch Berg 7/26/2003 01:21:38 PM

Friday, July 25, 2003

Predictions - Hugh Hewitt, in the midst of this excellent interview with John Hawkins, gives his views on the Democrat nomination:
I think it's going to be Howard Dean and I believe it's because of his unique appeal to the unhinged element within the Democratic Party which is large in the primaries. Dean's appeal is his pugnaciousness and the primary voters see reflected in him, their own sense of having been blocked out of every branch of government and their rage at George W. Bush's success. They're doing self-destructive things and the ultimate self-destructive thing is the nomination of Howard Dean and so I expect it.
Here's the big question: I've been told (and vaguely remember hearing) that Hewitt worked really hard to get conservative listeners to vote for The Duck in the MoveOn.org poll. I'd be interesting (and probably impossible) to find out how much impact that poll had on Dean's surge - and, should he carry the nomination, how much impact that had on the '04 race.

Ideas?

posted by Mitch Berg 7/25/2003 02:58:37 PM

I'll Believe It When I See It In My Checking Account - but here's hoping.

2 Key Economic Barometers Post Large Gains in June - which can't be making Paul Krugman or "Move On" any happier.

(Via Sullivan)

posted by Mitch Berg 7/25/2003 02:09:17 PM

Brain Fever - I learned long ago - some ideas from the ultra-loony left need to be kept in perspective; sometimes satire is the only real answer, and there's hardly anyone better at it than Scrappleface...

...who ably lampoons the new Berkeley study that tries to pass off conservatism as some sort of pathology.

The scary part was, when I first read it, I had to check and doublecheck to make sure the Berkeley article wasn't some hamfisted spoof of politicized soft-science research as well.

No such luck.
BERKELEY – Politically conservative agendas may range from supporting the Vietnam War to upholding traditional moral and religious values to opposing welfare. But are there consistent underlying motivations?
I do cognitive research to support software development, so I'm not completely unfamiliar with either the techniques of analyzying peoples' states of mind, or basic experimental procedures, either.

So let's see how this "report" stacks up:
Four researchers who culled through 50 years of research literature about the psychology of conservatism report that at the core of political conservatism is the resistance to change and a tolerance for inequality, and that some of the common psychological factors linked to political conservatism include:

* Fear and aggression
* Dogmatism and intolerance of ambiguity
* Uncertainty avoidance
* Need for cognitive closure
* Terror management

"From our perspective, these psychological factors are capable of contributing to the adoption of conservative ideological contents, either independently or in combination," the researchers wrote in an article, "Political Conservatism as Motivated Social Cognition," recently published in the American Psychological Association's Psychological Bulletin.

Assistant Professor Jack Glaser of the University of California, Berkeley's Goldman School of Public Policy and Visiting Professor Frank Sulloway of UC Berkeley joined lead author, Associate Professor John Jost of Stanford University's Graduate School of Business, and Professor Arie Kruglanski of the University of Maryland at College Park, to analyze the literature on conservatism.
Where to start with this article?

Who Were the Resarchers? Yeah, we got their names, but what are their backgrounds and biases? I mean, if a group of tobacco-industry employees did a study showing tobacco to be harmless, would that cast some aspersions on the study?

Fear not. What Berkeley won't tell you, I will. Jack Glaser is a UCLA researcher whose body of research leans heavily toward leftist social causes. I'll let you be the judge about Berkeley's Frank Sulloway. John Jost and Arie Kruglanski both have quite a few far-left buzzwords in their curriculum vitae.

Which is certainly their right as American Citizens and academics - but the fact that all four "study" authors are more or less overtly left-wing, and work in academic estabishments (UCBerkeley, UCLA, U of Maryland) that are far to the left of even normal American academia should be considered when assigning any credibility to the "study".
The psychologists sought patterns among 88 samples, involving 22,818 participants, taken from journal articles, books and conference papers. The material originating from 12 countries included speeches and interviews given by politicians, opinions and verdicts rendered by judges, as well as experimental, field and survey studies.

Ten meta-analytic calculations performed on the material - which included various types of literature and approaches from different countries and groups - yielded consistent, common threads, Glaser said.
As would have been predictable, I'd suspect, given the authors' biases!

Note that none of these methods, or source materials, are ever explained in the article.
Disparate conservatives share a resistance to change and acceptance of inequality, the authors said. Hitler, Mussolini, and former President Ronald Reagan were individuals, but all were right-wing conservatives because they preached a return to an idealized past and condoned inequality in some form. Talk host Rush Limbaugh can be described the same way.
Note the rhetorical legerdemain - comparing two modern-day, American sociopolitical conservatives with two fascist butchers. Coming from a bunch of E-Democracy posters, that'd be one thing; coming from allegedly respected academics, though - who are perfectly aware of the rhetorical weight of the connection - is beneath contempt.

It's also a lie. Hitler was no conservative. Yes, indeed, he harkened back to the German people's mythical "volk" traditions, but his aim was to radically change German society (while using the parts he needed to his benefit) - which is the opposite of conservative.
The researchers said that conservative ideologies, like virtually all belief systems, develop in part because they satisfy some psychological needs, but that "does not mean that conservatism is pathological or that conservative beliefs are necessarily false, irrational, or unprincipled."

They also stressed that their findings are not judgmental.

"In many cases, including mass politics, 'liberal' traits may be liabilities, and being intolerant of ambiguity, high on the need for closure, or low in cognitive complexity might be associated with such generally valued characteristics as personal commitment and unwavering loyalty," the researchers wrote.
Fair enough - but that begs a huge methodological question:

Conservative...as opposed to what? What makes a person liberal, or pro-choice, or "green"?

We get to what I suspect is the real reason for this report:
This intolerance of ambiguity can lead people to cling to the familiar, to arrive at premature conclusions, and to impose simplistic cliches and stereotypes, the researchers advised.

The latest debate about the possibility that the Bush administration ignored intelligence information that discounted reports of Iraq buying nuclear material from Africa may be linked to the conservative intolerance for ambiguity and or need for closure, said Glaser.
Well, that would certainly justify the "study", wouldn't it?

The article notes that:
"For a variety of psychological reasons, then, right-wing populism may have more consistent appeal than left-wing populism, especially in times of potential crisis and instability," he said.
In other words, conservatism fulfills peoples' need to be safe, and to view certain things (like the possibility of being nuked by a terrorist) in fairly black and white terms.
Glaser acknowledged that the team's exclusive assessment of the psychological motivations of political conservatism might be viewed as a partisan exercise. However, he said, there is a host of information available about conservatism, but not about liberalism.
Huh?

Above, the authors say their source materials are taken from speeches, articles and media appearances. Liberals don't write articles?
The researchers conceded cases of left-wing ideologues, such as Stalin, Khrushchev or Castro, who, once in power, steadfastly resisted change, allegedly in the name of egalitarianism.

Yet, they noted that some of these figures might be considered politically conservative in the context of the systems that they defended.
But we're not talking about the conservatism of self-preservation, here - we're talking about political conservatism as practiced in the United States. Right?

In the interest of fairness, they do get one part right:
Although they concluded that conservatives are less "integratively complex" than others are, Glaser said, "it doesn't mean that they're simple-minded."

Conservatives don't feel the need to jump through complex, intellectual hoops in order to understand or justify some of their positions, he said. "They are more comfortable seeing and stating things in black and white in ways that would make liberals squirm," Glaser said.

He pointed as an example to a 2001 trip to Italy, where President George W. Bush was asked to explain himself. The Republican president told assembled world leaders, "I know what I believe and I believe what I believe is right." And in 2002, Bush told a British reporter, "Look, my job isn't to nuance."
There may have been an academic reason for this study - but deep-down, I think it has more to with buttressing the liberal need to feel better, smarter and more sophisticated than their opponents.

Whew.

Maybe Scrappleface had the right idea after all.

posted by Mitch Berg 7/25/2003 12:50:13 PM

Thursday, July 24, 2003

Self Par-Uday - The Hussein Boys have bought the farm.

Everyone knows it.

Except, of course, Robert "Fisk Fodder" Fisk. Watch him jerk the chains:
Of course, they might be dead. The two men are said to bear an impressive resemblance to the brothers.
Reasonable Doubt!
A 14-year-old child killed by the Americans - one of the four dead - might be one of Saddam's grandsons.
A child! Dead!
Qusay was a leader of the Special Republican Guard, a special target of the Americans. The two men obviously fought fiercely against the 200 American troops who surrounded the house.
Those Plucky Underdogs!
The Americans used their so-called Task Force 20 to storm the pseudo-Palladian villa on a main highway through Mosul.

Task Force 20 combines both special forces and CIA agents. But this is the same Task Force 20 that blasted to death the occupants of a convoy heading for the Syrian border earlier this month, a convoy whose travellers were meant to include Saddam himself and even the two sons supposedly killed yesterday. The victims turned out to be only smugglers.
Therefore - and never mind what they may have been smuggling in this WMD-crazy time - everything TF20, and by extension the rest of the military does, is not only suspect, but guilty until proven innocent!
And American intelligence - the organisation that failed to predict events of 11 September, 2001 - was also responsible for the air raid on a Saddam villa on 20 March, which was supposed to kill Saddam. And the far crueller air raid on the Mansour district of Baghdad at the end of the air bombardment in April which was supposed to kill Saddam and his sons but only succeeded in slaughtering 16 innocent civilians. All proved to be miserable failures.
All Failures! Like the war itself! Why, except for that whole "liberated country" thingie, this war has been an unmitigated balls-up!

But it's in the closing that Fisk proves himself not only supremely, invincibly illogical, but quite stark raving mad:
If he and his sons are dead, the chances are that the opposition to the American-led occupation will grow rather than diminish - on the grounds that with Saddam gone, Iraqis will have nothing to lose by fighting the Americans
Got that? When the regime in whose interest everyone is fighting is eradicated, only then will Iraqis find it safe to fight us!

When the Fedayeen (who drove troops, NKVD-style, toward the American guns in Nasiriyah) are gone - then fighting us will be a matter of freewill!

Fisk may not have the toxic sheen of a Robert Scheer; he's too doddering and logically incontinent to meet that standard - but the fact that he earns a living at all is telling, and more than a bit depressing.

posted by Mitch Berg 7/24/2003 04:40:43 PM

More Later - I'm at the office, and about to start a day's worth of usabilty testing.

This article infuriates me.

This one puts it in its proper persepective.

More on this later.

posted by Mitch Berg 7/24/2003 09:07:42 AM

The Duck - The more I think about it, the more it feels like the Moovies and Howard "Duck" Dean's supporters have gotten it wrong.

Yeah, Dean raised a lot of money on the Internat. So did Ralph Nader in '00 (allowing for the web's relatively lesser maturity and the Green Party's outsider status at the time). I'd suspect there's a fair chunk of the far-left base - the Green Bus crowd - that doesn't attend $1000/plate black tie rubber chicken dinners, and wants to support someone who fits their worldview; when they have a portal like MoveOn spoon-fed to them, it's their opportunity.

Also - let's not forget the simple fact that when it comes to using the internet for communication and organization, the right was here first. As long-time "Shot In The Dark" reader JP, from California, noted in an email today:
Yes, a lot of conservatives voted for Howard the Duck. In fact, for days Hugh Hewitt was pumping his listeners to go to MoveOn.org and vote for Dean.
Indeed. This was before I listened to Hewitt very much (today, the 5-8 time slot is an embarassment of conservative talk-radio riches; Hewitt and Lewis are both great), but Hewitt is as plugged-in to the ways of the Web as anyone in radio (yet).

Many of the Moovies are newbies to this game; most of us conservatives on the web have been reading Drudge since '97 at least, and have many years' head start at using - and abusing - the web.

It'll be fun to watch how the "Dean Rules the 'Net" story develops.

posted by Mitch Berg 7/24/2003 08:54:57 AM

Off to the Office - Yep. One more day onsite.

This is a fine time to remind you, gentle reader, that while I'm an underemployed software designer (the titles vary - Information Architect, Usability Engineer, Human Factors Engineer, User Experience Designer, GUI Business Analyst, Web Designer or User Interaction Designer all work), I'm a mighty good one - and I'm very available!

Drop me a line if your company needs to design software that the users don't detest working with.

Sigh. The waiting is the worst.

posted by Mitch Berg 7/24/2003 06:56:53 AM

Speaking of "Just Doesn't Get It" - Laura Billings brings a bit of old-media snobbery to her commentary:
I might join in these criticisms if I did not also agree with the White House that e-mail is the one form of free speech that should be limited as much as possible. No longer are writers required to sit down with pen in hand and actually think about the best way to make their case. Instead, the ease of e-mail has convinced us that sending an electronic eructation is just as meaningful — and even more deserving — of an immediate response.
This from a woman whose commentary is often so rife with factual and logical errors that I'm thinking about erecting (electronically) a "Fisking Hall Of Fame", devoting it entirely to her, and retiring her number just to avoid the constant, challenge-less repetition of critiqueing her.

Just thinking about it, mind you.

posted by Mitch Berg 7/24/2003 06:54:09 AM

They Don't Get It - Question: If conservatives took over the internet, and no liberal newspaper observed the fact, did it really happen?

Articles in the Boston Glob and the Atlantic answer the question: "Al Gore didn't just invent the Internet, he wrote all the original content".

The Glob, in an article about the newfound influence of bloggers, focuses on the B-list blogger Oliver Willis and his site's contributions to the Howard Dean campaign, as well as another Dean-related site. Unmentioned, of course; the hulking presences of Instapundit, Sullivan, Volokh, Kaus, Drudge, even Lileks and Limbaugh (whose site isn't a blog, but behaves like one) - all right of center, all of whom wield more influence in their fingernail clippings than Oliver Willis' blog (as good as it is) ever will.

The Atlantic focuses on this month's flavor, "MoveOn.org". The site - founded in 1998 to protect Bill Clinton's right to lie to grand juries about his philandering - has made a splash lately with its big straw poll and its role in helping Howard "Duck" Dean jump ahead of the pack.
Political operatives see MoveOn as the wave of the future, a way to reconnect ordinary people to politics. As [Democrat wonk Scott] Rosenberg put it, "They really are at the cutting edge of a new model for how citizens participate in the political process." But he adds, "If they end up becoming a vehicle behind a single candidate, they are not adding a lot of value anymore to the political process."
Indeed. While the Atlantic article fairly breathlessly fawns over MoveOn and the johnny-come-lately Moovies, they do make note of one other Internet reality - shenanigans are everywhere (even after you factor out the fact that MoveOn's organization is sleazy::
Other campaigns complained that the MoveOn primary was rigged in favor of Dean. "The Dean campaign is fabulously organized on the Web," Walsh said. "When Salon writes a story, either pro or con Howard Dean, we hear from people immediately." But why the rigging charge? For one thing, MoveOn director Exley has done work for the Dean campaign. Moreover, after a straw poll of members, MoveOn allowed three "preferred" candidates—Dean, Kerry, and Kucinich—to send e-mail messages directly to its membership. Guess what? They were the top three vote-getters.
Guess what else? Conservatives, seeing Howard "Duck" Dean as a McGovern for the 21st Century, bum-rushed the MoveOn poll. Even *I*- and, says my email, some of my readers - voted for Dean!

Unmentioned in any of the stories I've seen from the left that lionize MoveOn and the Moovies: that the traffic they got during their poll (or, to be more accurate, that they're getting now) would fit neatly into the background noise for any of the major conservatives sites. And conservatives have been using the Web to organize for longer, and (unlike the slick, heavily-financed MoveOn site), at a much more grassroots level. Here in Minnesota, the Concealed Carry campaign was run primarily on the Internet - CCRN's website (not technologically updated since about 1997) was a gateway to an email newsletter that grew to be the second-largest in Minnesota, and was a very effective tool for mobilizing the concealed-carry movement that shocked the state last spring.

Prediction: After the '04 election, the Moovies will, themselves, "move on" to different toys. "MoveOn.org" will eventually let their domain lapse, and by early '06 the domain name will have been hijacked by a group of porn-site owners.

posted by Mitch Berg 7/24/2003 06:46:34 AM

Whacked - It hasn't happened yet - but it's only a matter of time before I encounter a Democrat who believes, as does Charles Rangel, that killing Qusay and Oday Hussein was illegal.

Volokh, as usual, has the goods:
I don't know if there's been any authoritative interpretation of this order -- and remember that it's just an Executive Order, and to my knowledge violation of such orders with the approval of the Executive (i.e., the President) is not a crime or otherwise actionable -- but in any event, does it apply here? I can't imagine that the order was meant to apply, or was understood as applying, to the killing of the members of an enemy military organization in time of war. That's what you do in a war: Kill enemy soldiers. Sometimes you kill them in battle, sometimes you send special forces to kill them by surprise. Sometimes you kill the grunts, sometimes you kill the generals (and it's often both more effective and more just to focus on the latter).
The next time a Democrat brings this one up, ask them - wasn't Clinton's Lewinsky-Eve Tomahawk attack the same thing?

Not that it matters; this, like the Yellowcakes non-story, is just more evidence that the Dems are panicking.

posted by Mitch Berg 7/24/2003 06:11:02 AM

Wednesday, July 23, 2003

Back To Work, For Now - Two more days onsite, then a few days working at home. Nice little project - should pay about a month's bills - and stretch my unemployment another month.

If I were to get one of these jobs a month, with maybe an extra thrown in occasionally for good measure, life would be relatively liveable.

Otherwise, it's pucker time. I'm waiting for word on several jobs, including the dream gig (which is taking forever to decide on third interviews).

posted by Mitch Berg 7/23/2003 07:48:26 AM

Quagmire Index Revised - The word is out:
Now that Saddam Hussein's sons are dead, a panel of journalists has revised the official Iraq Quagmire Index. According to the new benchmark, all violence against Coalition troops should cease immediately, since Uday and Qusay Hussein are gone.
Scrappleface reports. You decide?
Studies of American news consumers show they appreciate the Quagmire Index because it eliminates the need to consider and remember numerous facts. For journalists it saves time, and bypasses the discomfort of careful news analysis.
Satire?

posted by Mitch Berg 7/23/2003 07:08:18 AM

What Was Your First Indication? - The PiPress headline says it all: "Some Fear Dean May Be Next McGovern".
Bruce Reed, who served as President Bill Clinton's chief domestic adviser and now directs the centrist Democratic Leadership Council, said the other day: "A campaign based on telling the left everything it wants to hear would be a disaster in the general election. ... Dean has thrown his lot in with a neo-McGovern crowd, and what that crowd likes about him is what the rest of America won't like."

There are concerns that Dean's visceral anger at Bush would alienate the moderate and independent voters who tend to decide national elections, because those voters don't appear to dislike the President. And there are concerns that Dean, a New Englander who opposed the Iraq war and signed a bill legalizing gay civil unions, would be wiped out in the South - which means that, to beat Bush, he would need to win 70 percent of the electoral votes everywhere else.
Dick Polman, the Philly Enquirer writer for this story, hints at the divide in the Democrat party that's floating Dean at the moment - the big, maybe unbridgeable, split between the Volvo Democrats and the Chevy Democrats:
Dean is the insurgent outsider in this race. The Democrats usually have one: Gary Hart in 1984, Paul Tsongas in 1992, Bill Bradley in 2000. They generally attract the party's white, well-educated, professional voters - but as Dunn, a former Bradley aide, warned, "They often can't attract the blue-collar workers and less-educated voters. Hart couldn't. Neither could Tsongas or Bradley. Can Dean reach them?"
In theory, maybe - he's not that far left on many issues that genuinely matter to the blue-collar voter.

But as long as the war is perceived as successful among the blue-collar Americans that provide a disproportionate number of the troops, his anti-war stance is a boat anchor.

And I think the next six months or so will see Iraq start to settle down, and the post-liberation chaos start to form itself into some sort of order.

posted by Mitch Berg 7/23/2003 06:44:40 AM

Reaction, Action - If there's one thing the US military has learned since World War II and Vietnam, it's that planning has to be flexible. The enemy - whoever he is - is constantly acting to derail your plans. And intelligence, being an uncertain, fuzzy field, frequently causes plans to be based on faulty assumptions.

Change is not only good, it's unavoidable - if you're smart.

This WaPo article shows some of the process the Pentagon's gone through.
Until early June, when the Army launched the first of three major offensives in the an area known as the Sunni triangle north and west of Baghdad, U.S. officials didn't fully grasp the extent of Baathist resistance in the area, one Army official said today.

The first offensive, dubbed Peninsula Strike, wasn't aimed so much at Baathists as at hostile remnants of the Iraqi military that remained active in the Sunni town of Thuluya, on the Tigris River between Baghdad and Tikrit. Yet when captives from that operation, from June 8 to 15, were interrogated, they began shedding unexpected light on the role that Baath Party operatives were playing in the region in supplying weapons, recruiting fighters and financing attacks on U.S. troops and bases, officials said.

Later in June, the next offensive, Desert Scorpion, began with scores of simultaneous raids aimed at, among other things, shutting down escape routes available to the former Iraqi leaders. It also went after the secret hoards of cash and jewelry that were financing their operations, and it sought to gather more information about the size and structure of Baathist resistance in the Sunni triangle.

That series of raids yielded information on what analysts said was a surprisingly large network of Hussein loyalists. "We call it the gang of 9,000," said a senior Army official, adding that that figure was just an estimate of the number of Baath Party operatives, former intelligence functionaries and their allies active in the Sunni region and in Baghdad.
It occured to me during the Dash to Baghdad that the traditional culture clash between the left and the military played a small but signficant part of the problem. Both the military and the left are all about plans; the left's plans are usually inflexible documents that focus on visions; the military's plans tend to be more living, evolving things. When a plan of the left goes awry, it's because things are truly off the rails. When a military plan goes wrong - at least, under current doctrine - it is designed to be adapted while in progress.

Of course, not all is lost for the left. The post notes that opportunity waits around every corner:
Despite their recent success, U.S. military officials here caution that the fighting is far from over, and they predict that the nature of the attacks could worsen. They worry that the more they succeed, the more desperate Baathist remnants will become. So, they fear, the next phase of attacks might rely more on car bombs and other terrorist methods than on direct attacks on U.S. forces. Two officials here this week, for example, expressed concern about the possibility of an Oklahoma City-like bomb attack on U.S. officials and Iraqis working with them in the capital.
Well, Howard Dean has to hope so, doesn't he?

(Via Powerline)

posted by Mitch Berg 7/23/2003 06:10:44 AM

Tuesday, July 22, 2003

Sonset - Qusay and Uday buy the farm.

Says Den Beste:
I think it indicates a significant chance, perhaps as high as 1 in 4, that we'll also bag Saddam himself in the next couple of weeks. First, whatever source fingered Qusay and Uday may also have provided information about Saddam's whereabouts. Second, prisoners and physical evidence from the site of yesterday's raid may give clues as to Saddam's whereabouts. Third, this may panic Saddam into moving, and perhaps into giving himself away.

Fourth, and perhaps most important, someone else who sees the news about this raid may decide to finger Saddam for us.
But the real question (Thanks, PJZ) is, what does this mean to the Nine Dwarves and their stealth antiwar campaign? We hand it over to James Taranto.

We hear from John Kerry:
Kerry said he voted for the resolution with the understanding that the administration would build an international coalition before attacking Saddam Hussein's forces.

"It seems quite clear to me that the president circumvented that process, shortchanged it and did not give full meaning to the words 'last resort,' " Kerry said in a 20-minute conference call with reporters.
"And it also depends on what the meaning of the word "is", is", he may have added.

And from Dick Gephardt:
"Foreign policy isn't a John Wayne movie, where we catch the bad guys, hoist a few cold ones, and then everything fades to black," Gephardt, who supported the war in Iraq, said in remarks prepared for delivery to the San Francisco Bar Association.

"Diplomacy matters. Burden-sharing matters. Follow-through matters. And yes, sustaining the peace is harder, more complex, and often costlier than winning the war itself," he said. "No matter the surge of momentary machismo--as gratifying as it may be for some--it's short-sighted and wrong to simply go it alone."
Word has it that the Hussein kids would have been killed faster with kindness.

And finally, Howard "the Duck" Dean:
"It's a victory for the Iraqi people," he told reporters, "but it doesn't have any effect on whether we should or shouldn't have had a war."

In comments covered by the Associated Press, the disgruntled Democrat added, "I think in general the ends do not justify the means."

Despite the good news for America, Dean tried to stick to his sour-grapes message, complaining that his Democratic rivals shouldn't have supported the war.

"Why is it that those in Congress have waited until now to question the intelligence?" he whined. "Why were they not asking these questions and seeking the truth nine months ago, before they voted to give the president blank-check authority to go to war?"
Look for the presidential approval rating to start bouncing back shortly.

posted by Mitch Berg 7/22/2003 09:44:48 PM

Off To The Races, Contract Edition - First day at another of those little two-week jobs at a major local corporation today. Posting will be nonexistant until tonight.

See you then!

posted by Mitch Berg 7/22/2003 06:28:34 AM

Just Watch - Now that the "Bush Lied" story is losing its legs faster than a Walmart end table in a freshman dorm, watch for the "Why Iraq, and not North Korea" story to make a return.

By the way, you're hearing all about the "expert" prediction that the North will have eight nukes by year's end. The seven-second soundbite doesn't emphasize the name of the expert making the claim - William Perry, who was defense secretary and a special envoy to North Korea under, in both cases, Bill Clinton. The administration that got us into the mess with the North in the first place.

Perry shows a case of creeping Ritterism:
Only last winter Perry publicly argued that the North Korea problem was controllable. Now, he said, he has grown to doubt that. "It was manageable six months ago if we did the right things," he said. "But we haven't done the right things."

He added: "I have held off public criticism to this point because I had hoped that the administration was going to act on this problem, and that public criticism might be counterproductive. But time is running out, and each month the problem gets more dangerous."
Did he do this because he "hoped the administration" would act? Or just to give more political ammo to whichever Democrat wants to come out of his appeasenik shell first?

The timing is interesting, that's all.

posted by Mitch Berg 7/22/2003 06:21:32 AM

Monday, July 21, 2003

Speechless - This is just too wierd.
Democratic Party stalwart Barbra Streisand will be welcoming a Republican president home.

Her husband, actor James Brolin, has been cast as Ronald Reagan in a four-hour CBS miniseries titled "The Reagans," set to air during the November sweeps period.
I hear Sheryl Crow will be playing Phyllis Schlafly.

posted by Mitch Berg 7/21/2003 12:39:31 PM

Dingellfritz - Powerline has some excellent expository commentary on this exchange between Ward Connerly and Rep. John Dingell (D MI).

The whole exchange is fascinating, of course. Money quote from Dingell:
The people of Michigan have a simple message to you: go home and stay there. We do not need you stirring up trouble where none exists.

Michiganders do not take kindly to your ignorant meddling in our affairs. We have no need for itinerant publicity seekers, non-resident troublemakers or self-aggrandizing out-of-state agitators. You have created enough mischief in your own state to last a lifetime.
Connerly's response is a work of art - see the Powerline guys for much more. I liked this part:
your advice is the echo of southern segregationists who sought the comfort of states' rights to practice their discrimination against black Americans. Have you learned nothing about "civil rights" from that horrible chapter in our nation's history?

There is such an eerie similarity between them and you that it bears comment.

George Wallace, Lester Maddox and others who shared their rabid and abhorrent views believed in treating people differently on the basis of skin color…and so do you.

They wanted to practice their brand of racism free from the interference of “meddling, outside agitators”…and so do you.

They called those who disagreed with them and merely wanted to exercise their right to assemble “carpetbaggers” and “non-resident troublemakers” who were “stirring up trouble where none exists”…and so do you.

They were arrogant and intolerant bullies…and so are you.

Your letter is a prime example of why the texture of civil discourse in our nation is so coarse. It is an indication of why Members of Congress need the police to intervene to separate them from fighting. What a terrible example for our children and our grandchildren.
Read it all, of course. It's a good primer on the coarseness of public debate today, as well as on what a wonderful thing it will be when the generation that includes Dingell, Maxine Waters and some of the Congress' other racialist demigogues finally passes from the political scene.

posted by Mitch Berg 7/21/2003 08:16:44 AM

Saint Paul School Board - The Saint Paul Green party endorsed Richard Broderick to run for the Saint Paul School Board.

Now, I have nothing against Greens; if you leave out their la-la foreign policy, their rabid-rodent anti-capitalism, their myopia about "social justice", their marriage to multiculturalism (which is really repressed hatred of Westernism), their galloping double-standards about world cultures, their hatred of achievement and puritanism about food and lifestyles and public morality, they actually have a few good ideas about participatory grassroots politics (which, as it happens, the Libertarians had first).

But this press release bothers me. There's a lot of little, piddly points - the type of thing that I'll nick any Green on.

And then you get toward the bottom, to the genuinely scary stuff.

Here it is:
July 20 -- The Green Party of St. Paul has unanimously endorsed Richard Broderick for the St. Paul Public Schools Board of Education.

Twelve candidates have filed for the School Board race. The top eight vote-getters in the September 9 primary will move on to the November general election, where the top four vote-getters will be elected to the board.

Broderick has lived in St. Paul since 1986. He is a journalist and teacher at Anoka Ramsey Community College and the Loft Literary Center. A Minnesota State Arts Board fellow, recipient of three first place awards for journalism and commentary from the Minnesota Society of Professional Journalists, two first-place awards from the Minnesota Publishers Association, and numerous other awards for his writing, he is the father of two students currently enrolled in the St. Paul Public School System.

He is running for School Board, he said, because he believes that "public education is one of the most powerful -- and one of the last -- great democratizing institutions in America today." He says that he wants to protect St. Paul's public school system from attacks mounted by the forces of privatization, while also pressing the Superintendent's office to be more responsive to the needs of teachers, students, and parents."
Leave aside for a moment the hilarity of the notion that public education is "democratizing" (it's modeled after the old Prussian system - any system that requires eight year old boys to sit in straight-backed chairs for six hours a day is not "democratic". But that's another subject).

No, the notion that the public schools are "one of the last" democratic influences in our society is one I'd like to ask Mr. Broderick about some more.
Other specific proposals he plans to present include calls for reforms in the district's food purchasing system to favor locally produced, whole, natural, and organic foods;
Has anyone done any sort of cost-benefit analysis on this?
a severing of corporate ties that undermine intellectual freedom;
This is lunacy. While everyone's up in arms about the Channel 1s of the education world, I think it's a fair bet that there are plenty of private, "corporate" involvements that enhance "intellectual freedom".

In the meantime, "intellectal freedom" is the last thing that all too much of the public school system wants - least of all Richard Broderick, if the Green Party's press release is to be believed. But more on that in a bit.
...a School Board veto over tax-increment financing and other sweetheart deals between the city of St. Paul and developers that rob financial resources from the school district;
Read taht again. Broderick and the Greens want the School Board to have a veto in the City Council.

Is this making sense yet?
...development of curriculum in non-violent conflict resolution and creation of student-run conflict resolution committees in each St. Paul public school;
Student conflict resolution is an idea that can work - given that the students have access to genuine democracy in other parts of their school life. Without that, though, it's like giving fully functional municipal courts to the Burmese.
expanded, direct teacher, student, and parent input to the Board of Education;
I'd love to know what they have in mind for these (I asked, in the forum in which this release was originally posted). I won't hold my breath.
and conversion of the district to renewable energy sources.
Again - the costs and benefits, please.

Now - here' the part I think is either scary or hilarious:
"The core principles of the Green Party -- ecological wisdom, grassroots democracy, social justice, and non-violence -- are all rooted in a categorical rejection of exploitation and domination as acceptable means to our ends in life," Broderick said. "In order for our society to adopt these values -- as it must, if we are to survive on this planet -- we need to nurture the instinctively Green consciousness of our young people through the comprehensive application of these principles to curriculum, instruction, administration, and district-wide decision-making processes.
Read that again. Broderick sees the school system as the place to "nurture the instinctively Green consciousness of our young people", using the "curriculum, instruction, administration, and district-wide decision-making processes."

I'm not sure about you, but I don't want school board members "nurturing" my kids' political consciousness, Green, DFL or Republican. I want them to teach them to read, do math, reason critically, appreciate our culture and be good citizens. Let them nurture their own consciences, thank you very much.

Greens - what do you have to say about this?

posted by Mitch Berg 7/21/2003 07:45:10 AM

Sunday, July 20, 2003

Filthy Lucre - In my never-ending quest to make this site turn even a minuscule profit, I've joined the small cascade of other blogs to start offering merchandise.

Click the "Shop In The Dark" link on the right side of the page to check out the SITD Swag. We have:More to come as the market demands creative urge strikes me.

By the way, if the prices seem high - sorry. I've set my cut as a very small portion of the nut that Cafe Press charges. I'll hope to make up for it in volume.

Only five shopping months 'til Christmas!

posted by Mitch Berg 7/20/2003 11:49:12 AM

  Berg's Law of Liberal Iraq Commentary:

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