I don’t go to the WaPo’s Chris Cilizza for keen-eyed observations on conservatives or Republicans.
But his piece in “The Fix” on the Minnesota goober race provides some junk food for thought:
Norm Coleman (R) isn’t expected to make a decision on the 2010 governor’s race until next year but a new Rasmussen poll suggests the former senator has plenty of time to make his decision. Coleman led the Republican field with 50 percent while state Rep. Marty Seifert at 11 percent was the only other potential candidate to break double digits. Coleman’s lead is almost entirely attributable to name identification gained from his time as mayor of St. Paul and his six years in the Senate but it does suggest that if he decides to run, he will be a clear favorite. On the Democratic side, former Sen. Mark Dayton and Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak each received 30 percent of the vote while none of the other candidates scored in double digits. Coleman would give Republicans a chance to hold this seat, which is being vacated by Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) after two terms. But, if Coleman takes a pass this race looks extremely difficult for any other GOP candidate given Minnesota’s Democratic tilt.
Before we get to Cilizza’s actual piece, let’s take a moment to remember how well the “cult of the inevitable” serves the Democrats. While it’s entirely possible that the second coming of Ronald Reagan would have had trouble in the 2008 election, it’s also a fact that the “inevitability” of John McCain – cultivated through many careful years by the media, who spent the better part of a decade building up John McCain as the “Good Republican”, so they could spend six months tearing him right back down – didn’t serve the GOP especially well in the past election. McCain was built up to serve as a beacon for “Moderate” Republicans, and “moderates” discredited themselves utterly and completely between 2002 and 2008. Don’t believe for a moment that Big Media doesn’t desperately want to do the same again; look for a wave of approving stories about what an “acceptable”, work-across-the-aisle kinda guy Republican Mike Huckabee is, sooner than later.
But for the moment, let’s do two things; leave media perfidy out of it (or just accept it as a given and move on), and accept Rasmussen’s numbers at face value, and assume that Norm Coleman’s name ID gives him a prohibitive advantage in the GOP field (and, at first glance – again, let’s accept the numbers at face value – an edge over the Rybak and the ludicrous Mark Dayton), what does it mean?
I’ve disagreed strenuouosly with plenty of my conservative friends on Coleman, based on one key principle – a principle that guides so very much in life.
Perfect is the enemy of good enough.
Coleman, like Tim Pawlenty, is no conservative’s icon. But like Pawlenty, he is conservative enough, at least on the issues that matter.
Coleman, like Pawlenty, has angered conservatives with a number of his stances over the past 16 years. But, like Pawlenty, he has been a thoroughgoing conservative on the things should matter; taxes, spending, growth and security.
As Mayor of Saint Paul, he presided over eight years (and keynoted four more) of holding the line on taxes, on living within the city’s means, and on job and business growth – things that are nearly forgotten four years after Coleman’s successor Randy Kelly left office. Like Pawlenty, his conservatism may fray a bit around the edges, but at its core it’s just fine.
So who do I support for Governor?
I think the race boils down to one thing, if you’re a Republican; not moving the party to the center, but communicating what the right really stands for to give “the center” a reason to move right.
Do I think a thoroughgoing conservative like Tom Emmer, Dave Hann or Pat Anderson has what it takes to communicate the benefits of a real conservative vision to a middle that’s shell-shocked by Obama’s incompetence and excess? Yes, I do – and so does the Twin Cities’ media, which is why you never see Tom Emmer or Pat Anderson’s name in print without some variation on “extreme” or “hardline” conservative in front of their names. I’ve seen Emmer, Hann and Anderson talk with mixed crowds; I’ve even heard Emmer on a liberal-leaning internet talk show – he did a spectacular job of articulating the conservative vision to a non-conservative audience, and I have no doubt Anderson and Hann can do the same (which is why the Strib and the rest of the Twin Cities media will make sure that they don’t give any of them the opportunity to do it to a larger audience).
But at the moment, I support one thing; fighting like hell – as I put it a few years ago, grabbing one side of the rope or another in our inter-party tug of war and pulling like mad. Getting out the caucuses early next year and fighting like there’s no tomorrow for your candidate. Because for Minnesota conservatives, it’s a win-win situation. Either we get a genuine movement conservative, an Emmer or Anderson or Hann or Seifert, someone who can genuinely articulate conservatism to the undecideds, running for (and winning) the race…
…or we get Norm Coleman, after having to survive a tough, spirited nomination battle against three superb candidates to his right. Which will make him tack right, while still remaining Norm. Norm is no slouch at articulating the key tenets of conservatism to a crowd either; and as a “worst case” that isn’t all that bad, having to overcome Emmer, Anderson and Hann will force him to walk the conservative walk in a way he has not had to before.
Which is not a bad thing.
Perfect is the enemy of good enough. Would I prefer that Emmer, Anderson, Seifert or Hann won with a forty p0int margin? Absolutely – and I plan on pulling like hell for one of the three of them.
And whomever gets through the convention – Tom, Pat, Dave, Marty or Norm? I’ll pull like hell even harder for any of them.
Because any of them will make a better governor in these times than Rybak or Dayton.
Margaret Anderson Kelliher = 8%. That number has me doing cartwheels. I so despise that woman!
“Tom, Pat, Dave or Norm?”
Or Marty.
I think Norm would be a very good Guv.
Norm? Really? He doesn’t stand a chance. If he can’t rig a senate election there’s no way he’ll be able to rig a gubernatorial election.
AB – Hah!
Another career politician.
Rig an election? Is that the new standard? If so, the Democrat party are the undisputed masters. Franken outspent Norm 4 to 1 during the recount. ACORN “registered” 40,000 votes in Minnesota. The DNC brought in the same team of lawyers that stole the last Washington governor’s race.
I believe we have just witnessed one of Berg’ Laws. Wasn’t it #7, the one about projection?
Kerm,
We would be, were it not for the fact that AB was fairly clearly speaking tongue-in-cheek.
“the Democrat party are the undisputed masters.” – Kermit
I don’t care how out of context this quote is, I should get a cookie for enticing you to say this.
I keep forgetting that we’ve entered the Age of Irony.
I like Marty Seifert and Tom Emmer — a lot; they’ve both been terrific on gun issues — but both of them, it seems to me, would find it more difficult to beat both the DFL and the MSM in a two-candidate race than Coleman would.
I wonder if Minnesota voters might have Coleman fatigue. I like Norm and think he would be a fine governor, but if you can’t beat Al Franken in a statewide race as a sitting incumbent it means that voters have some serious problems with you. Yes, 2008 was a tough year for the GOP, but so was 2006 when T-Paw beat Hatch, a much tougher opponent than Franken. Anyone who’s been beaten by both Ventura and Franken has some electability issues.
If anything I hope the Rasmussen Poll gives both Seifert and Emmer a shot in the we need to be more visible then ever mentality.
As a Conservative Republican I can not support Norm Coleman. If we can not win on message and have to resort to putting Norm. He has the the same belief in global warming nonsense as Pawlenty. One thing is for sure don’t count on me to have Pawlenty and Coleman backs when they have let all of us Conservatives down for the sake of populism and junk science.
Cap and Tax, Renewable Energy Standards that exclude nuclear, new gas, and clean coal are going to drive energy prices through the rough as it gives the Environmentalists the upper hand. Just look at what it did to Big Stone II.
The Minnesota GOP and some Candidates like Norm seem to think that we Conservatives need them more than they need us. We shall see. I feel the shift in leadership coming from the local level on up and if that means a few losses to get there so be it. What is the difference anyways if the Republican that is on the ticket supports the same big government, big spending proposals that will hurt families, taxpayers and our economy as the DFL or Deomocrat on the ticket?
Chad,
but if you can’t beat Al Franken in a statewide race as a sitting incumbent it means that voters have some serious problems with you.
Or your party.
I mean, bad as Coleman losing was, the fact that Franken got 200 votes worth of coat-tails from The Obamessiah isn’t exactly a catastrophic repudiation of Coleman.
Yes, 2008 was a tough year for the GOP, but so was 2006 when T-Paw beat Hatch, a much tougher opponent than Franken.
But TPaw was a Dutcher away from losing that one too.
Anyone who’s been beaten by both Ventura and Franken has some electability issues.
I’d say timing issues. He happened to run against two groundswells of stupid.
I think The Elder is right, Coleman might now be damaged goods. How do we hustle for a guy who so clearly got out-hustled by Team Franken? I also note that most of Coleman’s conservatism was in Defense, agreed with W’s big gov “conservatism” far too often. Pawlenty is already not acceptable to many conservatives like me, Coleman is clearly left of Pawlenty. Better to be a minority party another cycle than give the majority enough of what it wants anyway. If we had a $6B surplus instead of a $6B deficit, you’d see the “conservative” Pawlenty disappear, as he did in 2005.
BTW – Coleman was out-hustled by Ventura, too.
Well, Pawlenty did beat Hatch — but it was a very close race, and I think it’s clear that if there hadn’t been an IP candidate to siphon off votes for Hatch, Hatch would have won.
Counting on that sort of thing again would be foolish.