Does Kos Know This?

Does Kos Know This? - Lefty bloggers have been known to obsess over polls.

One wonders how this is flying among the Kos crowd - Kerry has dropping in Pennsylvania, a key swing state. Bush currently leads in PA. Captain Ed is on the case:

The drop mirrors the free-fall that Kerry has experienced nationwide over the same period of time. Kerry dropped from 47% to 40% while Bush's numbers held firm at 46%, and Kerry's disapproval numbers went up the same amount. Nader's entry has pulled 3% of voters away from the two national candidates, but presumably mostly from Kerry. Kerry only leads among those voters 65 and older. The Keystone poll reports responses from registered voters instead of likely voters, which tend to favor Republicans a bit more, so the news is doubly bad for John Kerry and the Democrats. The poll was conducted over the weekend, after the fallout from the Clarke testimony and book publication.

Just to remind everyone, Al Gore carried Pennsylvania by 5 points in 2000. If Bush can take Pennsylvania, it puts Kerry in a deep hole, since the Keystone State represents 21 electoral votes. Having George Bush poll this strongly in a Rust Belt state while the economy is still revving up signals a deep problem with the Kerry campaign, who should be holding onto a state so close to his own. If this continues, Kerry will take his rightful place amongst the giants of electoral flops, McGovern and Mondale. (via The Corner)

Gander moment: Yes, I know - it's still seven months until the election.

We may be talking about the campaign polling on this week's Northern Alliance Radio Network show. John "Rocket Man" Hinderaker from Powerline remains pessimistic about the President's chances. I remain agnostic about polls, but am feeling better and better about my prediction last January...

...which you'll hear about on the Hugh Hewitt show the day after the election.

Posted by Mitch at April 1, 2004 05:36 AM